ABI Research has released its research on the tech trends it expects will not happen in 2025 – including AI-RAN, consumer smart glasses, humanoids and semiconductor onshoring.
As part of its whitepaper, ‘101 Technology Trends That Will – and Won’t – Shape 2025’, analysts from the company have identified 54 trends that will shape the technology market and 47 others that, in spite of the attention and conversation they’ve generated, aren’t anticipated to move the needle over the next year.
“2024 has been marked by challenges, from global conflicts and inflationary pressures to political uncertainty. These factors have strained enterprise and consumer spending, leading to market inertia, short-term technology investments, sidelined capital, and the exposure of vulnerable suppliers,” explained Stuart Carlaw, Chief Research Officer at ABI Research. “From a technology perspective, many industries and end markets are in that awkward stage of technology adoption where they are formulating implementation strategies, assessing solutions and partners, and trying to see if they have the resources needed to roll out solutions at scale.
“This is a particularly sensitive time, which tends to suggest 2025 will have tech implementers and end users on the brink of a period of a massive technology shift as they work through these issues.”
The trends that won’t happen in 2025
AI-RAN: AI-RAN remains in early development and commercial deployments aren’t expected before 2026. SoftBank, for example, comleted a trial and plans deployment by 2026, with broader adoption more likely by 2027. Next year, trials and pilot projects will advance the technology, but not large-scale deployment per se.
Consumer smart glasses: Smart glasses are anticipated to remain in the realm of early adopters. For consumer adoption, VR will maintain its strongest foothold in gaming, sports and fitness. Some companies will release onto the market early products and developer soplutions – like Snapchat with its newest Spectacles – but 2025 is seen as a transitional year for smart glasses as most traction coming from niche applications.
Humanoids: 2025 is when China expects to become the global humanoid leader, but humanoids more specifically will not experience wide scale uptake. Advances in hardware and teleoperation has demonstrated impressive performance, but humanoids will struggle to advance without there being radical change in AI. Automotive manufacturing will continue to prop up humanoid robots and more manufacturers will buy into the form factor next year.
Semiconductor onshoring: 2025 is going to be a ‘reality check’ for US and European semiconductor onshoring efforts, as implementation changes will force significant delays. In sipte of the US’ own investment – like the CHIPS Act’s $7.86bn grant to Intel and $100bn investment plans – projects including Intel’s Arizona and Ohio sites, TSMC’s Arizona fab and Europe’s Magdeburg facility face setbacks owing to EUV machine shortages, workforce gaps andoperational complexities. Full operational capacity is unlikely before 2027, and these hurdles will prompt a reassessment in 2025.
“This coming year will be key in understanding how Artificial Intelligence, Generative Artificial Intelligence (Gen AI), the Cloud, the Edge, the hybrid Cloud, Extended Reality (XR), enterprise 5G, and the ambient Internet of Things (IoT) will develop. Much is needed in terms of shifting from visioneering to real-world marketing, education, marketing around alleviating pressing endemic risks, and shifting to smaller practical revenue-generating implementations, rather than trying to ‘boil the ocean’. We look forward to helping our clients navigate the intricacies of 2025. Focusing on customer value, driving ROI, and addressing endemic issues will be key factors to success,” concluded Carlaw.
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