New research from Kaleido Intelligence predicts that revenue from LPWAN (NB-IoT and LTE-M) deployments will reach $2.5 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% from 2024 to the end of the forecast period. However, the global adoption of LPWAN faces significant hurdles, particularly in terms of roaming capabilities.
The report, ‘NB-IoT & LTE-M Outlook & Opportunities 2024’, highlights ongoing challenges in the LPWAN market, with roaming agreements being notably underdeveloped, thereby limiting broader adoption. Kaleido’s research indicates that only 13% of networks globally support inbound LPWAN roaming, with regions outside Europe especially lagging behind. Consequently, by 2028, just 16% of LPWAN connections are expected to operate under roaming conditions.
Steffen Sorrell, Research Lead at Kaleido, commented: “LPWAN roaming availability and wholesale monetisation is most acutely felt among the IoT MVNO community, and in part has led to some of the conversation being shifted to LTE Cat 1 bis. Factors such as 5G Standalone, 2G and 3G shutdowns as well as Non-Terrestrial Networks will help drive the market forward, however.”
Impact of network shutdowns
Between 2024 and 2030, approximately 188 operators worldwide plan to shut down their 2G and 3G networks. As these legacy networks are phased out, customers will be compelled to adopt modern alternatives, such as LTE-M or NB-IoT, particularly as traditional fallback options like 2G and 3G modules become obsolete. This shift is expected to drive significant market momentum, with LPWAN connections projected to grow at a CAGR of 46% from 2024 to 2028, particularly in markets outside China.
Cat 1 bis and 5G RedCap
The current state of LPWAN network support has led to increased interest in technologies like LTE Cat 1 bis and 5G RedCap. It is important to note that only with Release 18 will RedCap achieve a scope comparable to LTE Cat 1, while the maturity of 5G Core availability and 5G Standalone roaming agreements is still several years away. In the short to medium term, LTE Cat 1 bis presents a viable alternative for roaming connectivity.
Despite the uncertainty surrounding the range of cellular technologies available today, the expertise of service providers will be crucial in guiding customers to the most suitable solutions for their needs.
There’s plenty of other editorial on our sister site, Electronic Specifier! Or you can always join in the conversation by commenting below or visiting our LinkedIn page.
