US consumer technology revenues are set to reach $565bn in 2026, underscoring the sector’s resilience despite mounting tariff pressures and a more uncertain economic backdrop, according to new forecasts from the Consumer Technology Association.
The trade body said the industry is expected to grow 3.7% year on year, even as companies contend with higher costs, shifting supply chains, and softer consumer spending. The forecast was unveiled at CES 2026 in Las Vegas.
Industry leaders gathering at the annual technology showcase are weighing how far economic headwinds will reshape investment and demand. While growth remains intact, CTA warned that the impact of tariffs and broader uncertainty is becoming increasingly visible as companies exhaust pre-tariff inventories and face tougher pricing and sourcing decisions.
“Even as tariffs and broader economic pressures intensify, Americans continue to invest in technology that improves productivity, connectivity, and quality of life,” said Gary Shapiro, Executive Chair & CEO of CTA. He added that cost pressures were likely to become more pronounced as the industry moves through 2026.
CTA’s outlook suggests that the burden of rising costs is falling unevenly across the sector, with smaller companies more exposed to margin pressure and supply chain disruption than larger rivals.
Hardware revenues are forecast to rise 3.4% next year, while spending on software and services is expected to grow faster, up 4.2% to nearly $194bn. By contrast, unit shipments are projected to increase by just 0.7%, pointing to a market increasingly driven by higher-value products and services rather than volume growth.
Consumers are prioritising software-led features, subscription models, and flexible financing, as well as devices enhanced by artificial intelligence. CTA said this shift towards premium and AI-enabled experiences is becoming a central driver of growth.
These trends are reflected in the themes highlighted at CES 2026, which CTA said are shaping the next phase of the industry. They include the spread of artificial intelligence across devices and services, advances in digital health and longevity technologies, and continued investment in electrification, mobility, energy management, and infrastructure.
Compared with a year ago, these forces are emerging in a tougher economic environment. Even so, CTA’s forecast points to an industry adapting quickly by pivoting towards software, services, and higher-end innovation to sustain growth in 2026.
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