Revenues from public key infrastructure (PKI) will reach $14.9 billion by 2030, driven by growing complexity in enterprise systems alongside shorter certificate lifecycles and the looming prospect of quantum computing, according to the latest research from ABI Research.
“PKI sits under the hood of various cryptographic services, serving as an effective and scalable solution for securing identities, user and device authentication, and both intra and intercommunication across enterprise systems,” said Aisling Dawson, Industry Analyst, ABI Research. “Its role across industry markets is expected to surge, with revenue tripling over the next five years as regulatory and compliance requirements tighten in preparation for cryptographically relevant quantum computers.”
North America is forecast to continue leading in PKI revenue, but rapid digitalisation in Asia-Pacific will accelerate PKI market growth and close the regional gap. Regional idiosyncrasies continue to drive differences in PKI revenue trends, emphasising the need for vendors to develop vertical- and region-specific PKI strategies and roll out plans. In particular, data residency and sovereignty regimes are expected to bolster demand for hardware-based offerings in Europe, while Latin America presents strong revenue opportunities for national and government PKI solutions, specifically in the realm of digital and electronic identification.
Growing reliance on IoT and other connected devices on a worldwide scale positions device security and authentication for the most dynamic growth across PKI application segments, while enterprise and web PKI are set for steady growth as the decade wraps up.
“Rising appetite for investment in solutions that support increased crypto agility, such as PKI, will only persist as the threat of quantum computing advances,” added Dawson. “While acknowledging the significant influence of external stimuli such as the threat of quantum computing is key to understanding and capitalising on the rapidly growing PKI market, cognisance of internal influences on the PKI ecosystem remains acutely important.
“This includes the growing convergence between PKI and certificate lifecycle management (CLM) offerings as the impact of the CA/B Forum’s certificate lifecycle changes continue to reverberate across the PKI ecosystem. Ongoing market diversification means pluggability, flexibility, and interoperability must be center stage in vendors’ PKI services and solutions.”
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